Communicorps :: Learning :: By Definition

Alternative Scenarios

Scenarios are detailed descriptions of different plausible outcomes. This kind of creativity is simply "what if?" thinking. Scenario analysis helps to identify what factors may be an issue over time. Not only are you able to plan for the unexpected, but that planning itself may yield ideas that are helpful to your primary task. Thinking through several scenarios is a less risky, more conservative approach to planning than relying on the "best case." A simple example of alternative scenarios would be to consider "what would happen if it rained?" or "what if more people show up than we planned for?"

Example.
The United States military often plays "war games." During these games, a portion of the forces assumes the role of an enemy, creating scenarios that challenge the thinking and planning of main military force. Each of these scenarios can expose weaknesses in strategy, planning, manpower or equipment. Improvements made through the experience of "game" scenarios helps the military maintain their strength and agility.

Action Steps.

State the specific decision that needs to be made.
Identify the major environmental forces that impact on the decision. For an event, the forces may include cost, the weather, other area events or a medical emergency.
Build scenarios based on the principal forces. Use information available to you to identify different possibilities for each force. Assemble the alternatives for each force into a story of how the scenario may play out. Name your stories according to their outcome, such as "Who's Picking Up the Bill?", "Rained Out", "Missed You Last Night" and "Heart Attack."
Identify opportunities for improvement within each scenario. Are there ways to minimize the negatives and/or enhance the positives? Will any of the scenarios keep you from accomplishing your core purpose?
Examine the links across the range of scenarios. Are there any changes that can benefit all scenarios? Are there any weaknesses that will challenge all scenarios?